Ukraine latest news: Three killed in Crimea bridge explosion, says Russia as Zelenskyy adviser calls blast ‘the beginning’ | World News

 Here we round up some of this week’s most interesting takes and analysis on the conflict…

Could there be a coup?

Russian-born historian Sergey Radchenko, in an article for Foreign Affairs, on the prospect of a coup and what might come after Putin…

“Even if Putin’s deputies conclude they want Putin out, removing him from power will be difficult. Moscow has experienced no coup attempts, successful or unsuccessful, since the Soviet Union fell.

“Successors may well break with the behaviour of predecessors when convenient. That means that Putin’s eventual replacement does not have to be invested in his neo-imperialist agenda. 

“Indeed, were Putin ousted, his successors would likely blame Ukraine on his decisions and try to begin with a clean slate.”

Is Russia’s military collapsing in Ukraine?

Ed Arnold, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said Ukraine’s counteroffensive had now achieved its “primary political objective”, of “showing the West that it can take back territory – and using the weapons systems provided to do that”.

He went on: “Now they’re moving for more military objectives. First, to liberate towns and cities, as many as possible, before winter sets in. 

“But also to make sure that all the Russian-held territory is in range of  the longer-range weapons systems, so they can further degrade the Russians.”

Speaking on Wednesday, he said the Ukrainians had liberated eight towns around Kherson in the south in the last “24 to 48 hours”.

“Effectively, the Russian front has started to collapse,” he said.

“When armies collapse like this they need very good commanders to rally the troops, which the Russians just don’t have at the moment.”

Could the more negative tone in Russia media help Putin?

Sky News’ Moscow correspondent Diana Magnay wrote…

“Pundits on state TV are expressing concern at the dire state of affairs. Could this open a Pandora’s box for the Kremlin, criticism which gathers pace and which it cannot control, triggering a slow unravelling?

“But, it could also, intentionally or not, serve a purpose for Vladimir Putin. If his nuclear bluffs are to be taken seriously, and given Russian capabilities it would be foolish not to, he needs to present a case to his people that the nuclear option is – at some point – justified.

“He and his propagandists are pitching this as an existential battle against the military might of the collective West, out to destroy and dismantle Russia.

“A nuclear strike is an abhorrent option in any scenario but it makes no sense if you’re winning. With Russia losing ground though, and the outlook increasingly bleak, it might become more appealing as Vladimir Putin sees his options shrink.”

Why the West should stop sounding so worried about a nuclear attack

Over recent weeks Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have offered various warnings to the West that they are prepared to use nuclear weapons during this conflict if provoked.

This has prompted concerned discourse in the West – including from Joe Biden over the last two days – about an escalation that could have global consequences.

However, foreign policy expert Ian Bond, from the Centre for European Reform thinktank, says the West needs to stop being – and sounding – afraid.

This is what he told the Doomsday Watch podcast: “Nothing is as provocative to Putin as weakness, so the more the West says ‘we are afraid that Russia might use nuclear weapons’, the more likely it Putin is to continue making the threat of using nuclear weapons – and perhaps even use one or two to demonstrate he really means it.”

Bond says the message to Russia, which could be delivered privately, should be “please understand that if you go nuclear, we will regard the gloves as being off”.

While accepting that no one could “absolutely rule out” Russia would use nuclear weapons, he outlined evidence from the conflict so far that Mr Putin wouldn’t go there…

“Not only have the Russians not responded in any particular way to attacks on Crimea, but even on absolutely undisputed territory, in the Belgorod oblast – there have been Ukrainian strikes and the Russians have not responded to that in any particularly different way.

“We should stop frightening ourselves with the bogie man that if the Ukrainians drive the Russians out, the Russians are going to go nuclear, I just don’t buy that.”