LSU Needs To Win The Citrus Bowl To Solidify A Strong Direction For 2023

Bowl games are becoming less and less meaningful with respect to how they reflect the strength of the programs involved in them, and Monday’s Citrus Bowl matchup between LSU and Purdue is a good example of that trend.

Both teams are missing key pieces of their lineups who contributed to strong seasons – in Purdue’s case, an 8-5 campaign which included a Big 10 West Division championship, and in LSU’s, a 9-4 season and an SEC West title. So both the Purdue and LSU teams taking the field at Camping World Stadium Monday afternoon will be different entities than what we’ve seen of them all year.

Purdue is missing four of its best five offensive players: quarterback Aiden O’Connell, who threw for 3,490 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions this season, wide receiver Charlie Jones (110 catches, 1,361 yards, 12 touchdowns this year), tight end Payne Durham (56-560, 8 TD), and guard Spencer Holstege, who didn’t give up a sack all season but transferred to UCLA. Cornerback Cory Trice, an honorable mention All-Big Ten choice after breaking up 10 passes, notching two interceptions, returning an interception for a touchdown and adding two tackles for loss, also opted out to get ready for the draft, while defensive linemen Lawrence Johnson (15 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Branson Deen (17 tackles, 2.5 sacks) are in the portal. And senior linebacker Jalen Graham (52 tackles) has also opted out.

And Purdue’s head coach Jeff Brohm took the job at his alma mater Louisville a couple of weeks ago, so they’ll be coached by Brohm’s brother Brian, the erstwhile offensive coordinator. Former Saints QB and Purdue legend Drew Brees is pitching in to help coach the quarterbacks; sixth-year senior Austin Burton, who has started a couple of games, will replace O’Connor.

You’d look at the turnover at Purdue and you’d expect LSU would win the game in a blowout, and the Tigers are a two-touchdown favorite in the game. But LSU has its own opt-out problems.

Senior wide receiver Jaray Jenkins (27 catches, 404 yards, 6 TD’s) opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft, and then Jack Bech (16-200, 1 TD) transferred to TCU. Junior wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (48-538, 2 TD’s), who said he was coming back in 2023, got himself suspended for the Citrus Bowl and then declared for the draft. Defensive ends BJ Ojulari (56 tackles, 5 sacks) and Ali Gaye (35 tackles, 2 sacks), defensive tackle Jaquelin Roy (49 tackles, 0.5 sacks) and cornerback Mekhi Garner (43 tackles, 4 pass breakups) are all opting out to declare for the draft.

So you’d look at the situation and you’d shrug and say the Citrus Bowl is really just an exhibition game. It isn’t a reflection of the team LSU had this year and even if the Tigers blow Purdue out – or get blown out – it doesn’t matter much.

But it does. It matters a lot.

Let’s not forget that after clinching the SEC West championship LSU is currently on a two-game losing streak. That’s a problem; losing the Citrus Bowl would extend that streak to three games.

LSU can’t have a three-game losing streak heading into the 2023 season. LSU had a three-game losing streak in 2021, and there was a coaching change that year (though Ed Orgeron was fired just before that streak began). You don’t have three-game losing streaks if you’re a championship program.

Not to mention that winning the Citrus Bowl would mean a 10-win season, and that has to be the standard at LSU going forward. Brian Kelly posted five straight 10-win seasons at Notre Dame before taking the LSU job, so that’s his personal standard, and LSU has had 10 10-win seasons in the past 20 – a number which moves to 11 with a win on Monday.

There is a colossal difference between a 9-5 season and a 10-4 season, as Kelly noted…

“I think when you’re trying to put an ending on what has been in many ways an outstanding season. I know everybody judges seasons on wins from an outside perspective. But inside out, it’s been really good from my perspective as the head coach. You do want people to feel good about it from an outside-in perspective, and a win would do that. Ten wins does that. It’s kind of that that mark; that if you can get to double digits, you can kind of walk away and go, all right, everybody feels good about it. Season tickets are up. Everybody is feeling good. Everybody is patting themselves on the back.”

But there’s more. This game is a big opportunity for several key Tiger players to step up.

Most important among those is Jayden Daniels, who despite posting a very good initial season as LSU’s starting quarterback still has lots of critics. Daniels actually played quite well in the first half of the SEC Championship Game loss to Georgia, going 16 of 24 for more than 200 yards before his injured ankle forced him from the field, and then Garrett Nussmaier came off the bench and keyed an entertaining air attack which didn’t so much make the game competitive as embarrass Georgia’s vaunted defense.

Daniels announced later that he was coming back for 2023, which is a big deal for next year’s team. But his hold on the starting job isn’t ironclad, because Nussmaier is increasingly ready to be a big-time quarterback.

So Daniels needs to show off a pocket presence on a little higher level than he showed for much of 2022. He needs to acquire receivers quickly and get rid of the ball, and he needs to show an ability to pass with precision down the field. Those are the developmental items holding him back from stardom, and they’re the things his critics bring up when arguing Nussmaier is the rightful future starter.

So the Citrus Bowl is a big test for Daniels, and he actually has a great opportunity to pass it with flying colors given that his line is intact and Purdue’s is not, which should mean he has a clean pocket.

The game is also a great opportunity for LSU’s four available wide receivers.

Malik Nabors doesn’t have much to prove against Purdue. He’s likely to build on what’s already an excellent sophomore season (63 catches, 854 yards, 2 TD’s) against a Purdue secondary without Trice, and he’ll be able to do it without LSU trying to force-feed Boutte the ball as they’ve tried to do most of the season. But the biggest opportunity belongs to Brian Thomas (27-330, 4 TD’s), who has been lost to an extent in the offense but has shown flashes of being immensely productive. With Trice out, Purdue is almost certainly going to double-cover Nabors most of the game and that creates potential mismatches with Thomas. He could have a big game. So could Kyren Lacy (22-211), who’s shown flashes but has yet to post a breakout game as a Tiger. And then there’s freshman Landon Ibieta, who hasn’t played all year due to injury and will redshirt this year, but is eligible to play in the Citrus Bowl.

LSU has a breathtaking amount of talent coming in at wide receiver and there’s a sense Boutte moving on is best for everyone. The receivers need to show off that it’s true on LSU’s side of the equation, and the opportunity is golden to do just that.

But with Johnson, Deen and Graham missing for Purdue LSU should also have a productive running game. The Tigers have all three of their main backs available for the Citrus Bowl, and Josh Williams, John Emery and Noah Cain are all in need of showcase performances.

Especially Emery (70 rushes, 328 yards, 5 TD’s), whose ball security issues have damaged his stock and derailed what was beginning to look like a breakout year. He’s eligible to return to LSU next season, but if he’s not able to put a great performance together against a depleted Purdue front seven it’ll start to look like he’s never going to emerge as that star running back he was recruited to be.

Williams and Cain, meanwhile, are fighting to hang on to their roles – Williams (97 rushes, 532 yards, 6 TD’s) as the main back in LSU’s offense and Cain (68-351, 8 TD’s) as the primary short-yardage/goal line back). With signees Trey Holly and Kaleb Jackson coming aboard the roster next year, competition in the backfield will be wide open. The more good film the veterans put together the more of an advantage they’ll have in holding on.

Defensively, this is likely to be the Harold Perkins Show. With Ojulari out and backup Desmond Little having transferred, Perkins (69 tackles, 7.5 sacks) will effectively have the Jack linebacker job to himself on Monday. He’s going to be LSU’s prime pass rushing threat, and we know he’s capable of shutting down an offense rushing from the edge. But Texas A&M and Georgia negated Perkins by running right at him and Purdue will likely try to do the same. Look for LSU defensive coordinator Matt House to move Perkins around to create havoc. Senior Mike Jones (19 tackles) is listed as LSU’s Jack linebacker for the game, and this is Jones’ last opportunity for a big game. He started the season as an inside linebacker and it just didn’t work out there; Jones has talent as a pass rusher, so this might be a game where he could surprise.

The interior defensive line is also going to be an adventure, as LSU didn’t have much depth there to begin with and now Gaye and Roy are out. That means All-SEC defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo (41 tackles, 2 sacks) is likely to play practically every down, and it means Jacobian Guillory (12 tackles) is going to play more than he’s ever played. It also means the game could be a breakout opportunity for sophomore defensive end Sai’vion Jones (22 tackles, 3.5 sacks), who quite often actually outperformed Gaye at the defensive end spot this year and now has it to himself.

Guillory and Jones could have breakout games Monday. They need to. Jones is a vital part of LSU’s defensive plans next year, while Guillory has three veteran players coming in from the transfer portal in Jordan Jefferson (West Virginia), Jalen Lee (Florida) and Paris Shand (Arizona) who’ll be fighting him for playing time, not to mention sophomore pre-season All-American Masson Smith’s return after missing almost all of the 2022 season with a knee injury.

But there is zero proven depth on the defensive line for this game. That means redshirt freshman Bryce Langston, who’s barely seen the field so far at LSU, and true freshman Tygee Hill are going to have to step up and show something for the first time. Freshman defensive end Quincy Wiggins, who redshirted this year due to injuries early, similarly has a showcase opportunity. And backup Jack linebacker Zavier Carter, who at 6-4 and 205 pounds isn’t big enough to play every down, will need to show he can be a designated pass rusher going forward.

LSU already has players coming in to compete with those young backups, and Kelly has said he’s looking for more. They all need strong showings against Purdue or the newcomers could get priority beginning in the spring.

The one highly productive player Purdue’s offense does have coming back is running back Devon Mockobee (182 rushes, 920 yards, 9 TD’s), a former walkon who’s been key to a running attack which only averages 3.7 yards per rush and 123 yards per game. With O’Connell and the two best receivers out, it’s a good bet they’ll try to run the ball down LSU’s throat. That means this is a great opportunity for senior linebacker Micah Baskerville (team-leading 83 tackles, 6 pass breakups) to go out with a big game to show off for the NFL scouts. It’s also an opportunity for returning players Greg Penn (71 tackles), West Weeks (23 tackles) and Demario Tolan (9 tackles) to compete for jobs next year. Most people think Perkins will move over to replace Baskerville, so Penn, Weeks and Tolan are headed for a three-way fight for a starting role – and that starts on Monday. If one of them has a big game it likely means Purdue’s running game is limited and a decent win is in the cards.

But the game is a pro showcase for seniors Jarrick Bernard-Converse (42 tackles, 3 pass breakups) and Jay Ward (54 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 1 interception), who’ll be manning the corners. Without Jones available both have a chance to lock down Purdue’s outside receivers and most importantly T.J. Sheffield (39-424, 3 TD’s), the best of those who’ll play. LSU has senior Colby Richardson (11 tackles) in reserve, but the real question is whether backups Seven Banks, a highly-touted Ohio State transfer who’s missed basically the whole season with injuries, and freshman LaTerrance Welch can get on the field to make an impact.

And at safety this game will be a big opportunity for senior Joe Foucha (32 tackles, 2 pass breakups), an Arkansas transfer who hasn’t had the season it was hoped he’d have, to go out with a bang. Foucha will start at strong safety while sophomore Major Burns (31 tackles, 3 pass breakups) will play the nickel and Greg Brooks (58 tackles, 3 pass breakups, 1 interception), who announced he’ll be back next year, will be the free safety. Sage Ryan (19 tackles, 2 fumble recoveries) is the fourth safety available. With O’Connell out along with Jones and Durham there’s an opportunity for these guys to feast. They’ve got to.

We really don’t want to talk about LSU’s special teams play, as it’s been abysmal all season. But much-maligned special teams coach Brian Polian, who has endured the ire of the fans all season, is a vital player in LSU’s recruiting efforts and it’s unlikely he’s going anywhere. Polian’s units are going to need to quiet the critics against a Purdue team which hasn’t distinguished itself in the kicking game either.

It’s a final chance to see LSU football, and there’s a lot to learn about this team even with the opt-outs on both sides. Kelly needs this win, and so do the players. Monday at noon central, we’ll find out whether the Tigers are ready.