House Speaker, GOP Incumbents ‘On Notice’ After Super Tuesday ‘Bloodbath’ in Texas

Poring over the winners and losers last night in the Texas Republican Primary, it’s clear that endorsements played a key role.

In what several observers have called a “bloodbath,” as many as 10 incumbents took a fall and seven or eight entered into runoffs on Super Tuesday, including the Texas House Speaker (and based on unofficial results).

A Texas House Speaker has not faced this kind of opposition over the last half-century, which is an eternity in legislative world. Let’s take a look at what happened when the lights went out in the Lone Star State last night.

TRUMP PICKS DOMINATE

As the presidential nominees were virtually decided, Donald Trump‘s endorsements loomed large over legislative races. Trump endorsed in 17 state House races — 13 of his endorsees won outright, with two in runoffs.

One of those two runoffs involves David Covey versus Speaker Dade Phelan, and another features a conservative challenger (Helen Kerwin) versus moderate Republican House member DeWayne Burns, a speaker ally.

That means three losses for Team Trump. Though they do not likely have many personal connections, their endorsements are often informed by allies on the ground, such as Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and embattled AG Ken Paxton. As a matter of fact, of the three who lost on Trump’s list, they were against incumbents (Drew Darby and Stan Lambert) who fell into disfavor with Paxton and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. The other was Rep. Morgan Meyer, a centrist from Dallas who was supported by Abbott but targeted by Paxton (see a handy endorsements chart at the bottom of this article).

This gives the anti-Speaker coalition in the House GOP at least 10 more votes, and more depending on how the runoffs turn out.

ABBOTT’S SCHOOL CHOICE REVENGE

Then we come to Abbott’s list. It was primarily based on those who supported his school choice legislation in the last session and special sessions.

In all, Abbott’s list saw nine victories and eight going to the runoff. By our math, this puts school choice legislation within close reach.

We noted six losses of education savings vouchers opponents: Reps. Steve Allison, Ernest Bailes, Travis Clardy, Glenn Rogers, Hugh Shine, Reggie Smith, and Steve Allison.

PAXTON’S PUSHBACK

While Paxton’s picks weren’t the deciding factors Abbott’s or Trump’s ended up being last night, his team can hang their hat on a surprising upset victory against Rep. Kronda Thimesch in favor of Paxton impeachment defense attorney Mitch Little.

Team Paxton endorsed a slate of state judicial challengers, all of who exceeded expectations. The one shocker, social conservative favorite, Texas Supreme Court Justice John Devine, came very close to defeat. Paxton’s endorsement may very well have been the bean that tipped the scale Devine’s direction.

Paxton’s preferred Court of Criminal Appeals candidates — Lee Finley, Gina Parker, and David Schenck — defeated incumbents who have been accused of stymying Paxton’s efforts.

“To those who would seek to obstruct justice or undermine our laws, know this: The people of Texas will not tolerate it. Your days of judicial activism are numbered, and Texans are ready to hold you accountable,” Paxton warned via Twitter/X.

RECOGNIZABLE ISSUES AT PLAY
Endorsement lists are important, but this election had two factors that were unusual:

1) Low turnout. As mentioned, the presidential race was virtually buttoned up (even before Ambassador Nikki Haley‘s exit this morning). Turnout rivaled that of a May local election in many places, making get-out-the-vote strategies and micro-targeting all the more important.

2) Issues the average voter could recognize. The Paxton impeachment effort and school choice are a lot more understandable to the masses of voters then, say, tax compression or retired teacher pension fund reinvestment. Although Phelan’s supporters could easily say the tax buy-down made this arguably the most conservative session in recent memory (and one actually felt by voters), the other issues made for better attack mailers. This writer observed many Texas House candidate supporters shouting to voters in line at the polling place “[*insert incumbent] voted to impeach Paxton,” met by no shortage of thank-yous and nods for those headed to go grab a Republican ballot.

WHAT’S NEXT

“The people of House District 21 have put every politician in Texas, and the nation, on notice,” Covey said in his victory statement. “Our elected officials are elected by the people and work for the people, and when they don’t there will be consequences.”

Phelan countered that it was “vitriol” and unaccounted-for donations that won the day for his opponents.

“This runoff is not just another race, it’s the frontline of the battle for the soul of our district [HD 21 in southeast Texas]. In the next couple of months, the deceit and vitriol we’ve witnessed from my opponent and his dark money allies is poised to escalate to even greater heights,” Phelan said in a statement.

In the meantime, watch for these Texas House incumbents who have entered the Republican Primary Runoff (you better believe we’ll be following up on these races soon):

Rep. Gary VanDeaver (New Boston)
Rep. Justin Holland (Rockwall)
Rep. John Keumpel (Seguin)
Rep. Stephanie Klick (Fort Worth)
Rep. DeWayne Burns (Cleburne)
Rep. Frederick Frazier (McKinney)
Rep. Lynn Stucky (Denton)

The Primary Runoff is scheduled for May 28, 2024. Interestingly, this will be after the Texas GOP convention, adding an element of competition to what is normally a summertime rally to reunite warring Republicans and focus on defeating their Democratic rivals in November. The Texas GOP reportedly had to choose a May date to save facilities expenses due to lower-than-usual donations to the state party.

I made a complete list of every #txlege endorsement by @GovAbbott, @KenPaxtonTX, @DanPatrick, and @realDonaldTrump. Political geeks enjoy. pic.twitter.com/SmWwgAOtFs

— Chris Fails🌵 (@FailsChris) March 5, 2024