Louisiana Digital News

Crisis Warning! U.S. Debt Will Destroy the Economy, Large Amounts of Money Flee.

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The latest PPI data released by the US Department of Labor on 16 November rose 8% year-on-year, unexpectedly below expectations and also below the previous value. This suggests that US inflation may have peaked, further evidence that it is beginning to fade. The Fed’s aggressive tightening policy to redeem its own credibility for poor inflation control is beginning to meet resistance, with the possibility of an early dovish turn or even an early rate cut increasing.
This is another solid evidence of slowing inflation growth following the unexpected end of the US CPI rise in October, which had previously been above 8% for eight consecutive months, triggering Wall Street to bet that the Fed will pause in raising interest rates.
The signal from the Fed was also very clear after the data was released. Fed Governor Patrick Harker signalled a timely dovish turn, saying that the pace of Fed rate hikes would slow in the coming months. Rather than take the risk of excessive tightening, the Fed should stop raising rates and keep them high at some point in 2023.
At least four Fed governors have made similar dovish comments in the last week. Amid signs that the US economy is in recession and the US Treasury Secretary warning that the US Treasury market may be about to collapse, the signal was ushered in for the Fed to abandon rate hikes and turn. Indeed, in a rare admission of financial stability risks in the US, the Fed hinted that it would change the direction of interest rate hikes in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report published back on 5 November.
On 16 November, market expectations of the Fed’s interest rate trajectory became more dovish, with final interest rate expectations falling and then expectations of a rate cut rising.
It is clear that the Fed has now lost some of its nerve, and has even panicked, on its aggressive rate hike path to avoid a larger crisis. 16 November saw the largest inversion of the US 3-month and 10-year US bond yield curves since late 2019, seen as signalling that the US economy will see a recession in the next three months.

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