- October 31, 2025
Non-Federal Statistic of the Day: Recession Predictor?
We would’ve gotten Q3 advance GDP yesterday, and September personal income and outlays today, ordinarily. What indicators do we have
States with Negative GDP, Employment Growth in 2025H1
Eleven states for GDP, ten for employment: Figure 1: Annualized GDP growth in 2025H1, calculated as log differences. Source: BEA
Prediction Markets Are Very Accurate
alexmccullough at Dune has a very good post on the accuracy of Polymarket prediction markets. First, how do we measure
Creative Destruction in a Nutshell
A good figure from the Nobel Prize Foundation’s Scientific Background to the Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt Nobel. The figure shows
Some Business Cycle Observables [updated]
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production,
Democracy and Capitalism are Mutually Reinforcing
Many people argue that democracy is incompatible with capitalism but they differ on whether democracy will kill capitalism or whether
The Economics Nobel goes to Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt
The Nobel prize goes to Joel Mokyr, the economic historian of the industrial revolution and the growth theorists Phillippe Aghion
Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size
Beware the aggregates. The slowdown is showing up in smaller firms first, according to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data.
The ai Boom
The tiny country of Anguilla (pop 15,000) has an official country top-level domain code for the internet of .ai. Domain
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction