Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Kyiv wants to join the European Union within two years, setting a very ambitious timetable for joining the bloc.

Speaking to Politico, Shmyhal said “we have a very ambitious plan to join the European Union within the next two years … So we expect that this year, in 2023, we can already have this pre-entry stage of negotiations,” he said.

Ukraine has made no secret of its wish to join the EU and has already applied to join the bloc. It is not the only candidate country. Others, such as North Macedonia and Montenegro have waited over ten years for any progress in their own respective membership applications. French President Emmanuel Macron has said EU membership for Ukraine is likely to be a process that will take “decades.”

EU commissioners are heading to Kyiv on Friday to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Politco noted that their task will likely be “managing expectations” regarding such a tight timetable for entry into the EU.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russia told the United States on Monday that the last remaining pillar of bilateral nuclear arms control could expire in 2026 without a replacement due to what it said were U.S. efforts to inflict “strategic defeat” on Moscow in Ukraine.

Both Russia and the United States still have vast arsenals of nuclear weapons which are currently partially limited by the 2011 New START Treaty, which in 2021 was extended until 2026.

What comes after Feb. 4, 2026, however, is unclear, though Washington has indicated it wants to reach a follow-on agreement with Russia.

Asked if Moscow could envisage there being no nuclear arms control treaty after 2026, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the RIA state new agency: “This is quite a possible scenario.”

Ryabkov, Russia’s top arms control diplomat, said the United States had in recent years ignored Russia’s interests and dismantled most of the architecture of arms control.

“New START may well fall victim to this,” Ryabkov told RIA. “We are ready for such a scenario.”

His remarks constitute a warning to Washington that its continued military support for Ukraine could scupper the final major post-Cold War bilateral arms control treaty with Russia.

The United States has supplied more than $27 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded the country on Feb. 24, including over 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft rocket systems, 8,500 Javelin anti-tank missile systems and over 1 million 155mm artillery rounds.

“The entire situation in the sphere of security, including arms control, has been held hostage by the U.S. line of inflicting strategic defeat on Russia,” Ryabkov said.

“We will resist this in the strongest possible way using all the methods and means at our disposal.”

— Reuters

Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to threaten him with a missile strike in what he described as an “extraordinary” phone call before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In an excerpt of a BBC documentary called “Putin vs the West,” Johnson says he spoke to Putin in February 2022, shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. During that call, he said he told Putin that war would be an “utter catastrophe” and would entail sanctions on Moscow and likely more NATO troops on Russia’s borders.

Johnson said that after making those points during the call, in which he said Putin had been “very familiar,” Putin appeared to threaten him.

“He threatened me at one point, and he said, ‘Boris, I don’t want to hurt you but, with a missile, it would only take a minute’ or something like that,” Johnson said in the documentary, the BBC reported.

“But I think from the very relaxed tone that he was taking, the sort of air of detachment that he seemed to have, he was just playing along with my attempts to get him to negotiate.”

It’s impossible to ascertain whether Putin was serious in his comment but relations between the U.K. and Russia were already strained before the war, particularly after a Russian nerve agent attack carried out in the U.K. in 2018. The U.K.’s staunch support of Kyiv has heightened tensions.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian authorities are likely keeping open the option of another round of call-ups under its “partial mobilisation” program, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defense.

In an intelligence update on Twitter, the ministry cited media reports last week suggesting Russian border guards were preventing dual passport-holding Kyrgyz migrant workers from leaving Russia, telling the men that their names were on mobilization lists.

Separately, on Jan. 23, the ministry noted that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the decree on the partial mobilization, announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin last September, “continues to remain in force, claiming the decree remained necessary for supporting the work of the Armed Forces.”

“Observers had questioned why the measure had not been formally rescinded,” the British ministry stated, adding that “the Russian leadership highly likely continues to search for ways to meet the high number of personnel required to resource any future major offensive in Ukraine, while minimising domestic dissent.”

There has been mounting speculation that Putin could announce another mobilization wave, given the Russian defense ministry’s recent announcement that it plans to beef up its combat personnel to 1.5 million people, from a current reported level of around 1.1 million.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed allies for faster weapons supplies as fighting in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk region, continues to be intense.

“The situation is very tough. Bakhmut, Vuhledar and other areas in the Donetsk region are under constant Russian attacks. There are constant attempts to break through our defense,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address Sunday.

“We are doing everything to ensure that our pressure outweighs the occupiers’ assault capabilities. And it is very important to maintain the dynamics of defense support from our partners,” he said, adding that “the speed of supply has been and will be one of the key factors in this war.”

“Russia hopes to drag out the war, to exhaust our forces. So we have to make time our weapon. We must speed up the events, speed up the supply and opening of new necessary weaponry options for Ukraine,” he said.

Ukraine’s allies Germany and the U.S. agreed last week to send Kyiv dozens of tanks, with other allies in Europe pledging to send their own German-made tanks as well, and the U.K. sending British tanks to Ukraine. Ukraine’s ambassador to France, Vadym Omelchenko, said on Friday that 321 Western tanks are set to be delivered to Ukraine.

— Holly Ellyatt

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisted at the weekend that fighter jets would not be provided to Ukraine, telling a German newspaper that there should not be a “bidding war” over weaponry and that Germany “will not allow a war between Russia and NATO.”

Scholz reiterated Germany’s objections to sending fighter jets to Ukraine, telling the Tagesspiegel newspaper Sunday that there is no question of doing so.

“The question of combat aircraft does not arise at all,” Scholz said, according to Politico’s translation of the original story.

“I can only advise against entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapons systems,” he added.

Germany last week agreed to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after months of resisting pressure to do so. Berlin also said it would allow other allies to send their own German-made tanks to Kyiv. The U.S. also agreed to send a number of M1 Abrams tanks.

Ukraine expressed gratitude for the decision to send tanks but immediately said it needed more firepower to counter Russia’s invasion, asking for fighter jets from its allies. One defense ministry advisor told CNBC he was sure Kyiv would receive F-16 fighter jets from its allies and that there should be no delay over the decision, as there was over tanks.

Over the weekend, another Ukrainian official said negotiations over the possible sending of attack aircraft to Ukraine were “ongoing.”

“Our partners understand how the war develops. They understand that attack aircraft are absolutely necessary to cover the manpower and armoured vehicles that they give us,” advisor to the head of the Office of the President Mykhailo Podolyak told the Freedom TV channel Saturday.

“In the same way, in order to drastically reduce the key tool of the Russian army – artillery, we need missiles. That’s why negotiations are already underway, negotiations are accelerating,” Podolyak said in comments translated by NBC News.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukrainian tank crews arrived in the U.K. over the weekend to begin training on Challenger 2 tanks that Britain has provided to the country.

The U.K. said it would provide 14 tanks earlier in January, ahead of the U.S. and Germany announcing last week that they too would provide tanks.

Tank crews will be trained to both operate and maintain the tanks, which will be delivered to Ukraine by March.

— Holly Ellyatt