Posted on: October 23, 2024, 05:27h.
Last updated on: October 23, 2024, 08:29h.
I married the woman of my dreams this past May and have since relocated from my hometown of York, PA, to Arlington, VA. I recently checked my voter registration status on Vote.org and Vote411.org to make sure I’m able to cast my presidential ballot come Nov. 5. To my surprise, it showed I’m registered to vote in both commonwealths.
I applied for and received my Virginia driver’s license earlier this year. I’ve never missed a presidential election since I first became eligible to vote and didn’t plan to start in 2024.
I try to put my political leanings aside when reporting on the 2024 election betting odds. I take great pleasure in being called on social media both a “liberal media hack” and a “MAGA idiot” — comments that seemingly suggest I’m accomplishing that goal. With less than two weeks until Election Day and early voting underway in many states, most Americans have made up their minds anyway.
As of now, President Donald Trump is the heavy betting front-runner, with the ex-casino billionaire’s implied odds on Polymarket hovering around 63%. Vice President Kamala Harris’ underdog status continues, with her implied odds at 37%.
Polymarket says there’s $588.5 million bet on Trump winning to $396.5 million on Harris becoming the 47th president.
At sportsbooks in Canada where betting on the 2024 election is permitted, BetMGM and other operators have also reported more action on Trump than Harris, which has tipped the odds in Trump’s favor. A month ago, Trump and Harris were neck-and-neck at -110. Today, Trump is the favorite at -175 to Harris at +135, or implied odds of 63.6% and 42.56%.
Election Concerns
Trump refused to concede defeat during the 2020 election that put President Joe Biden in the White House despite no court or state audit finding grave fraud that would have altered the result in his favor.
Still, Republicans remain concerned about election integrity. They think election officials and poll workers in heavily Democratic cities in key swing states like Pennsylvania have flipped votes blue or voted on behalf of deceased voters who remain active on state voter rolls. Trump has also raised allegations about swing states using “mules,” or people who go around in Democratic cities and counties to illegally collect ballots in what becomes so-called “vote dumps” where a vast majority of the votes go in a certain candidate’s favor.
Democrats allege that our elections are safe and fair. The Democratic Party says on its official website that it is “committed” to protecting and enforcing voting rights.
We stand united against the determined Republican campaign to disenfranchise voters through onerous voter ID laws, unconstitutional and excessive purges of the voter rolls, and closures of polling places in low-income neighborhoods, on college campuses, and in communities of color,” Democrats.org reads.
The Republicans, of course, have a different view.
We will implement measures to secure our elections, including voter ID, highly sophisticated paper ballots, proof of citizenship, and same-day voting. We will not allow the Democrats to give voting rights to illegal aliens,” the GOP.com website reads.
Voter Responsibility
There’s seemingly little preventing me from voting in both Virginia and Pennsylvania. I have already sent in my mail-in ballot here in Virginia and could easily make the two-hour drive north to my former voting place in the Keystone State on Nov. 5.
Of course, that would constitute breaking the law. The odds, however, of me facing prosecution for doing so are presumably long.
While attorneys I spoke with say it’s not illegal to be registered to vote in two states, federal law does limit me to voting in just one. It’s also not up to me to decide where to vote — hey, Pennsylvania could be the deciding state! — because federal law says I’m to vote in the state of my primary residence, aka Virginia.
The U.S. election system unquestionably has its problems. The management of voter rolls from state to state seems to lack adequate, real-time communication, as made evident by my case. Despite legally moving my residence to Virginia months ago, Pennsylvania thinks I’m still there.
My case — and people like me who moved from one state to another in an election year and are still registered in their former jurisdiction — is presumably inconsequential compared to the matter when it comes to college students who attend school out of state.
Vote.org tells college students that they “can usually register to vote in either your hometown or where you attend college.” Controversy about that is currently ongoing in Pennsylvania’s Lancaster County.
While I’m legally forced to vote in Virginia, Vote.gov says a college student “might consider” voting in their hometown as compared to their college town depending on “which location is more convenient” and even “who is on the ballot.”
The lackadaisical approach to voter rolls and their bespoke legality places an abundance of responsibility — and for those seeking to dupe the system, opportunity — on us voters.
I’m fortunate to have been raised by parents who taught me right from wrong. So, I won’t be driving up to Pennsylvania next month. The thought of being charged with a felony, as is the possible result of voting in two states during a federal election, is a bet with too much risk.