- November 20, 2024
Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris
Structural Breaks in the Term Spread-GDP Growth Relationship
Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures
Core up, but supercore down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services
Info Finance
Excellent post by Vitalik on prediction markets and the broader category of what he calls info finance: Now, we get
“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022
Thet’s Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to
Spinoza is ten years old today
Happy Birthday Spinoza! The post Spinoza is ten years old today appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Source link
Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC: Figure 1: Nonfarm
If the Official Inflation Rate Is Correct, the Real Policy Rate In Russia Is Now 12.4%
The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%. That’s assuming (1) adaptive expectations, and
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1: Source: Antoni. Item 2: Source: Antoni. Not that the data are “wrong” (I’m not a data conspiracy theorist).