S&P500: Three-Sigma Deviation, Bear Market Breadth, & J POW says the quiet part out loud…
I’m a business owner, entrepreneur, and investor providing financial education for retail investors, and exploring the implications of world events on financial markets.
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Previous DD/Thesis:
The stock market, Mother of All Short Squeezes, AMC, GME, Bank Derivative Liabilities, Economy, Business, Futures, Real Estate & More:
Credit Default Swaps are up 5,000 % in 2021.
**Dark Pool Use By Top 4 BANK NOW 61.8 %
Banks Owe $ 189 TRILLION IN UNREALIZED LOSSES IN DERIVATIVES ALONE NOT INCLUDING Naked Shorts, Synthetic Shares, FTD’s & MORE!
CBO Admits, inflation and GDP to “surpass its maximum sustainable level”.**
Part 1 of 7
This began as an investigation into the correlations from 2008, 2011, 2013 and 2021 stock market crashed and debt ceiling issues.
It turned into my biggest nightmare and there’s no good outcome. Buy Calls on my therapist… $65 strike price…
As of 8/1/21 we are entering a new debt ceiling crisis with congress on a 6 week vacation, combined with an expired rent moratorium where 6.2 million renters face evictions, the homeowners of said tenant’s houses will likely never receive back-pay for rent owed possibly causing record high bankruptcies akin to 2008 or worse, and without taking this into account, CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $3.0 trillion this year as the economic disruption caused by the 2020–2021 coronavirus pandemic, while the legislation enacted in response continue to boost the deficit (which was large by historical standards even before the pandemic).
In August 2011, during the debt ceiling crisis, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the federal budget would show a deficit of close to $1.5 trillion, or 9.8 percent of GDP.
That is nearly 1 percentage point higher than the shortfall recorded in 2010 and almost equal to the deficit posted in 2009, which at 10.0 % of GDP was the highest in nearly 65 years at the time.
At 13.4 % of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit in 2021 would be the second largest since 1945, exceeded only by the 14.9 % shortfall recorded in 2020.
For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 %.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/21999
The CBO estimates from 2011 would be heaven compared to the reality we’re facing, which is a crippled economy and stock market on the verge of collapse. Evidence below;
In 2011 CBO projected the 3 month Treasury bill to be worth 4.4% in 2021.
The actual 3 month Treasury bill rate for July 2021 is worth between 0.01 and 0.06%.
In 2011 the projected 10 year Treasury note bill rate was projected to be 5.4% for 2021
The actual 10 year Treasury note bill rate is 1.24% In July 2021
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Report Released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Beureau of Economic Analysis, on the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021….
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