This Might Be The First Real Blunder Of The 2023 Gubernatorial Race

Yesterday we saw a pretty startling development, as perhaps the most powerful Louisiana politician of them all reached into the 2023 gubernatorial race and slapped the heck out of one of the candidates in it.

At issue is this ad by a PAC called “Reboot Louisiana”…

Who’s Reboot Louisiana PAC? Well, obviously it’s a pro-Stephen Waguespack outfit. A quick perusal of its most recent campaign finance disclosure shows that most of its $1.7 million in cash on hand comes from out of state – a million dollars of that $1.7 million actually comes from a Hyattsville, Maryland outfit known as American Advancement. That organization is run by someone named Evan Handy – and we couldn’t find much of anything about him.

The long and short of it is this is one of those DC dark money deals. The word when Waguespack got into the race was that there was a pool of money out there that Garret Graves had raised which would then be Waguespack’s war chest. And that sort of checks out here; of the Louisiana money in Reboot Louisiana PAC you’ve got $100,000 from All Star Automotive Group, whose principal Matt McKay (no relation to the author) identifies with the “moderate” Republican South Baton Rouge crowd, and another $100,000 from Jonathan Bruser of MMR Constructors, plus another $10,000 from Arkel Construction and $10,000 more from Level Construction…these are all Garett Graves folks.

Which is not to say they aren’t Waguespack people as well.

The point being there’s a little bit of Louisiana money here but this is also primarily a DC establishment Republican thing.

So it drops this ad blaming Jeff Landry for the crime wave running wild through Louisiana’s cities, something New Orleans’ pro-criminal district attorney Jason Williams is parroting as he threatens to run for governor – something which could conceivably help Waguespack’s efforts to get into the runoff – and one might be tempted to see the contours of a GOP establishment backlash against the Trumpy conservative Landry forming.

Except we’re betting they didn’t count on this…

Majority Leader Scalise Statement on Pro-Waguespack PAC Attack Ad Against Attorney General Jeff Landry

New Orleans, LA (May 31) – Louisiana must elect a bold conservative as our next governor in order to move our state forward and in a positive direction. The best way for a Republican to regain the Governor’s mansion is by laying out their vision for the state’s future and building momentum by way of inspiring others to join in their cause.

While the temptation always exists, Republicans attacking other Republicans is the only way we can lose this November’s election. Stephen Waguespack is a friend, but those supporting his campaign and outside efforts are hurting his chances—and Louisiana Republicans—by breaking Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment in launching negative attacks against the Republican front-runner, Jeff Landry.

We must learn from the mistakes of the 2015 and 2019 governor’s races, where Republican infighting ultimately squandered our opportunities to win the Governor’s mansion. As we work towards getting Louisiana back on track in 2023, Republican candidates must focus on their positive vision for our state, not instigating intra-party attacks and provoking defensive retaliation. Ultimately, this unproductive discourse only benefits those who want to keep our state on the wrong track.

Stephen Waguespack should denounce this negative ad and Reboot Louisiana PAC should take down this attack ad immediately.

Ouch.

Steve Scalise generally stays pretty clear of state electoral politics. Almost to a fault, he leaves the state races alone. Just about the only time you saw Scalise’s name mentioned with Louisiana races was back in 2019 when for a brief moment there was talk he might run for governor. That went away and he went pretty quiet other than when there was some friction over the redrawing of the congressional districts two years ago when Scalise – and all of the rest of the other Republicans in the delegation – were a bit steamed at Graves over some of his demands.

But that was pretty minor. Now, Scalise just threw a haymaker down on Waguespack’s PAC which is funded by Graves’ local folks and some DC big-money people. It’s almost like he’s telling the GOP establishment – which he’s mostly identified with as the House Majority Leader – to stay the hell out of his turf.

The LAGOP has already endorsed Landry, and when Scalise popped the Reboot Louisiana people they dropped their own statement…

Majority Leader Steve Scalise issued the following statement earlier today. The LAGOP fully endorses the Majority Leader’s sentiments, and believes this pro-Waguespack attack against the endorsed Republican candidate for Governor, Jeff Landry, to be unprovoked and unwarranted. We urge Mr. Waguespack and his supporters to refrain from such attacks in the future.

The effect of this might not necessarily be to help Landry. It might actually help John Schroder, which indirectly helps Landry. If Waguespack’s PAC blunder here tarnishes him, then maybe Schroder, who as state treasurer is a perfectly reputable and viable candidate in his own right and so far doesn’t have a blemish like an open repudiation from the second most powerful member of Congress on his escutcheon, hangs on as the chief non-Landry Republican in the race.

And maybe Schroder catches the next round of fundraising dollars from the non-Landry Republican donors who most people thought would be for Waguespack.

We’re taken a little bit of heat for having a rather dour outlook for Waguespack’s chances of winning this race. And we’ve always liked and been a fan of Steve’s; we’re just struggling to see a clear path for him to win this thing. With this setback, which he really can’t afford this early in the race when everything you hear is how Landry is the clear favorite to make the runoff among the GOP candidates, our theory of the race just solidifies a little more.

And if we’re right, this is going to be one more data point proving how utterly useless out-of-state money and strategy is when it comes to Louisiana’s state races – not that we didn’t already know that after the Eddie Rispone disaster in 2019.