Losing this war is destroying the Russian ‘mythos,’ and could destroy Russia

There’s also this little factor: the T-90S is significantly different than other tanks in the series. It has different electronics, different firing controls, and even a different engine. So using these tanks in the field requires having mechanics who are capable of servicing these systems, as well as a set of spare parts to deal with the inevitable breakdowns.

And if there’s anything that has really defined this war for Russia, it’s their skill with logistics.

Historian Kamil Galeev has produced some of the most incisive and thoughtful examinations of Russia’s motivations and behaviors during this invasion. Just three days into the conflict, he produced a genuinely deep and insightful review of “Why Russia will lose this war,” and his writing about the criminal culture within Russia and the level of corruption in the Russian military has been revelatory.

Galeev is back this week with more analysis of what happens when Russia loses the Ukraine invasion. What he expects going forward is that Russia is about to see a fracturing of its remaining empire. And have no doubt about it, Russia remains an empire.

For Galeev, the glue that holds that Russian empire together is a “mythos,” one that says that the Russian military is so superior to that of any potential breakaway component that there is no point in fighting, and one that warns any resistance to Moscow will result in horrific punishment—see Grozny for a reference example.

Moscow doesn’t see Ukraine as an independent nation they have invaded. They see it as another “rebel province” that has to be taught a lesson in standing up to the Czar. The problem for Moscow is that, in framing it that way, they are turning Ukraine into exactly the object lesson they don’t want the rest of a long-repressed empire to learn.

If Russia is unable to “crush” Ukraine, or at least keep its populace convinced that it can do so in the near future, the mythos that binds the empire together unravels. So does the empire.

As with all of Galeev’s threads, this one is worth reading in full. Even if you’ve been taking a break from visiting Twitter, break that fast long enough to go through the details here. At least enough to learn about why Siberia could be the key to world events that could echo over decades.

Berdyansk is down on the Azov coast, 70km west of Mariupol. It was also the location where Ukraine first hit Russian ships in harbor, taking out a landing ship and making Russia rethink the safety of its naval fleet. This time it’s the airport that’s been hit—and apparently hit hard.

While this attack on military planes at the Berdyansk airport is certainly reminiscent of how Ukraine repeatedly pounded the airport west of Kherson, this isn’t necessarily a sign of where Ukrainian forces mean to go next. That’s particularly true because Berdyansk has reportedly been one of the sites from which drones and Russian planes carrying missiles have been directing attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns. So this may speak a lot more to saving lives far from the front than to securing control over the air in advance of a ground attack.

This last week has seen a lot of examples of human portable anti-tank weapons at work again, very like the videos seen in the early days of the war. What do those two times have in common? Well, there’s a lot of mud, and there are very few leaves. So armored vehicles are largely confined to moving down well-established paved roads while remaining highly visible. 

What do you get in those conditions?

St. Javelin at work.

This morning, the head of the Luhansk Oblast military administration made a statement on Telegram reporting Ukraine was advancing along the line between Svatove and Kreminna and that “good news from Luhansk Oblast is expected soon.” 

Meanwhile, in Bakhmut, Russian forces have managed to capture the window factory and the city garbage dump. Seriously. That’s still how things are being measured at Bakhmut.

There continue to be reports of people expecting a more significant advance at Bakhmut. If it comes, it’s likely to be Ukraine making the motion, because there’s still no sign that Russia can put together an action larger than a couple of units. At the moment, the fire continues to be intense, with the usual exchange of artillery and the Russians sending waves of men forward, but nothing really seems to have changed in either tactics or scale.